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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.